Calculating a rating

 Whenever you put something out in a blog, you know you will get pushback.  Everyone thinks their team is the best, and I don't mind relooking at ratings that I have painstakingly calculated for 1200 teams in over 300 tournaments. 

I know that I haven't dug up every tournament and I don't have every team but the ratings I have posted are pretty darn good.  There isn't another rating of this many teams and most ratings are opinion-based, not based on calculating head-to-head scores.

I got some pushback from Marcus Denmon yesterday.  Marcus Denmon has been a great program and has been highly successful for a number of years.  I have seen a number of BallerTV games with Denmon, including their loss to my grandson's Larry Hughes 16U last year.  Denmon beat Jimmer Elite last year so they don't think Jimmer belongs where I rated them.  I don't know... I only have the Omaha Showcase results for Jimmer and he might be right.

I think the comment on Twitter was that the ratings were "this list is superflawed".  That doesn't help me much in going back and revisiting calculations.  And comments, when I asked for particulars of "it's already been proven" doesn't help either.  I will relook at tournament results to see if I miss something.  The rating is based on the entire season and not one game.  Teams do well and sometimes not.  

So I went back to the tournaments where Marcus Denmon played, Sunflower, Hardcourt 2 and Omaha Showcase.  Denmon did very well, 10-4 in those tournaments.  So how did their rating change when I recalculated it?  Here's the analysis:

Marcus Denmon
https://basketball.exposureevents.com/150948/2020-sunflower-showcase/teams
https://admin.tourneymachine.com/Public/Results/Division.aspx?IDTournament=h2020021223265686600a54df7ad8049&IDDivision=h20200212232656886659f346e1f2f41
https://basketball.exposureevents.com/150991/2020-omaha-showcase/schedule
Event Opponent Score Outcome Opponent Rating Denmon Rating
Sunflower Team GoL1ve 66 73 L 121 114
Team RWA 46 44 W 114 116
Missouri Elite 79 64 W 97 112
SW IL Jets Blue 52 31 W 115 136
Hardwood Classic II Mokan Select 72 78 L 124 118
Iowa Barnstormers Gold 59 34 W 120 145
Missouri Elite 75 49 W 97 123
Gth 4XIII 69 49 W 107 127
Yobo 32 47 L 124 109
Omaha Showcase SL Rebels Red 89 66 W 115 138
Team Knight Elite 79 48 W 112 143
Team Factory Rise 70 56 W 121 135
Illini Magic 72 70 W 114 116
Young & Reckless 57 58 L 123 122
Record 10-4 Average 125.3
Posted 126.2

  


So Denmon was actually a point higher in my posted rating than on a recalculation.  If anything, YOBO, Mokan Select, Young & Reckless and Team GoL1ve should have a beef because Denmon is rated more highly than any of them and Denmon LOST to all of them.  But remember what I said... ratings are based on all tournaments, not just one game.  

So what do I think?    I don't know about Jimmer Elite.  I need to find more tournament results for them.  Coach D might be right on Jimmer, but I think Denmon is fairly rated and I feel confident that the other ratings are fair too.

If you want to help make these ratings better, send me hard information.  Tournament dates or links, scores, etc.  I can't work with opinions.  


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