How good was my rating system?

 

So, how good was the rating system?  There will be lots of debate about who was best in the country, who was best in Missouri, who was best in St. Louis.  Everyone has been pretty polite about the ratings.  No one seems to take it too seriously, although I have had some pushback.

To make sure I am getting it right, I sometimes take a look back on who teams have played and whether the current rating is accurate or not.  I recently did that with Arsenal Hoops, who messaged me about some wins that they had over teams that were higher rated.  Marcus Denmon had messaged me earlier in the summer about how they had beaten everyone the year before (of course, that was then and this is now).  I compared Denmon to their opponents and found that they were justly rated.  When I looked at Arsenal Hoops, I found that I had overly weighted several games and that their rating was actually higher by a couple of points.  That doesn't always equate to a higher rating just because you beat someone.  The ratings are based on season results and consistency is an important part of that equation.  A bad loss to a poorly rated team can offset a good win against a highly rated team.  And the reason a team is highly rated is because, on average, they beat a lot of great teams, even if they lose an occasional game to someone lower rated.  The stats generally bear out who are the better teams.

After Arsenal Hoops asked about their rating, I decided to look at some other St. Louis teams including the Saint Louis Blazers, LHBA, Gateway and Gateway Knights and all three SW Illinois Jets teams.

I went back to each of the tournaments I had rated for the model and plugged in the score, year-end opposing team rating and calculated a new power rating.  I am not planning of reposting my ratings but this analysis just gives me some direction on what I might do going forward.

Here's a breakdown with a few comments.:

Arsenal Hoops - their coach messaged me and inquired (politely) about their rating and, after looking at it, discovered that they were several points below where they should be and I adjusted them.  They did beat a good Southern Illinois team but overall, the SI Select were more consistent and played a tougher schedule than Arsenal.  Sometimes you beat a higher rated team but the average rating doesn't change much.  As Aristotle said, "Excellence is a habit, not an act."  One game does not make the season rating. Arsenal played mostly local tournaments and their average opponent rating just at 100.

Saint Louis Blazers - The Blazers were the most active St. Louis area team this summer and performed consistently well at some excellent tournaments.  Their only bad game was against Buddy Buckets Gaddis (KS) but then everyone had a bad game vs Gaddis, except for Buddy Buckets OK.   I found that they were over-rated by four points but that was due to their last tournament (an after-thought) where they were upset by Cobras ANM so I did not change their rating.  I usually let Earl Austin Jr. comment on the talent but the Blazers seemed to play some great "small ball" and were nearly unbeatable when they were hitting their treys.  Their schedule was demanding, and their opponent rating was 107, so a 16-3 record was commendable.

Larry Hughes Basketball Academy - LHBA has been playing together for five plus years, so they play some of the best team-oriented, small ball but they were thin this summer with only 6 or 7 players after the first tournament.  Their overall opponent rating was 111 before the last St. Louis tournament where they weren't challenged until the JRock finale, when they came back from 20 down to beat a D1 laden mix of St. Louis Christian and Chaminade players.  They had two bad losses, an OT loss to a weaker Salt Lake Rebel team and a 20 point loss to a very good three point shooting Lincoln Supreme National with several D1 signees.  Their team rating was impressive when you look at where Prep Hoops rates the players individually.

Gateway Basketball Club - I was puzzled by the rating for Gateway and I am still trying to figure out how such a talent-laden team ended up with a 116 rating.  Maybe I missed some tournament results.  They had an impressive team rating of 123 after Prep Hoops Havoc in the Heartland but a disappointing result at The Finale, including a bad loss to a good but not great Chicago Demons.  Their opponent rating was 109.  If they played other tournaments, maybe someone can point me to them.  I really expected them to be a 130 rated team this summer.

Gateway Knights - The Knights had an up and down summer.  I discounted their upset loss to TNBC Elite at the Gateway All American and they ended well with some good results at the The Finale.  I posted them at 112 rating and discounted part of the early season.  Their opponent rating was 107 but they could have easily been 6-4 instead of 4-6 in the games I rated.

SW Illinois Jets - The Jets were the deepest program in the St. Louis Area with Orange and White looking terrific.  Orange only loss was to a KC Run GMC team that was in the top ten in my national ratings.  I removed that bad loss and put them at 128 rating without that result.  It's too bad the top teams weren't all at one St. Louis tournament as it would have been interesting to see if anyone could challenge Orange.  They were pretty deep and very consistent all season.  Their average opponent rating was a demanding 114.

Jets White was also very successful, losing only to Jets Orange by six points. They powered through decent opponent schedule at an average 105 rating.  The analysis indicated that they were actually under-rated by a couple of points and should be around 115 rating.

Jets Blue had a rough summer, playing a demanding 114 opponent rating that included Marcus Denmon, Team Knight Elite and a superb 2022 Lincoln Supreme National 1 squad.  Their final rating was a couple of points too low also.

I have included some top 10 teams along with the St. Louis area teams.  YOBO, which appeared to have a down year, actually played the toughest schedule at 124.  

Overall, I was fairly satisfied that the final ratings were pretty solid.  It's just for fun and I hope you enjoyed reading these this summer.  I don't know of anyone else who was rating most of the 17U teams in the country but it is statistically based but only as good as the tournaments I could find.  

If you have a comment, please be polite.  We have enough crap on Twitter already, if you know what I mean.